13. Amari Cooper vs Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta, surprisingly had success against wide receivers last year (best per FFToday), but my take is that it’s only because of how terrible they were against the run (3rd worst per FFToday). Enter 2016 and Jameis Winston in week 1. Completely exploited what this pass defense is all about, registering nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns. The Falcons main corner, Desmond Trufant did not shadow Mike Evans in week one so there’s no reason to expect Amari Cooper to see that coverage. Either way, Cooper is a talent second to none in this league and vowed he was not healthy last year while still going over 1,00 yards as a rookie. Whether you believe him or not, the 11 targets and 6-137 week one line makes me want to roll tide in the black hole. Atlanta’s supporting cast next to Trufant (Robert Alford and Jalen Collins) need to pick up their game or teams will continue to work away from him. Trufant was the least targeted corner in 2015 and pro football focus grades this unit at #25 for a reason (pro football focus). Their holes are exposed and I expect Derek Carr and the Raiders to follow suit from what the Bucs did in week one.
14. Jordan Matthews at Chicago Bears
If Mr. Sandman was in fact going to bring you a dream, this matchup would be an option. Football Outsiders compiles a DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average) that measures a team’s true efficiency and the Chicago Bears finished 29th overall and 31st against a team’s #1 wide receiver. If that is too “statsy” for you then we can turn to pro football focus and talk about their 26th ranked secondary. For the final punch to the gut, three defensive backs for Chicago: Deon Bush, Harold Jones-Quartey and Kyle Fuller have questionable tags for this Monday Night’s game. Two didn't play in week one and Jones-Quartey left the game early. Jordan Matthews 14 targets in week one was good enough for second in all the league and proves to be Carson Wentz’s go-to player in the passing game. Let’s not forget how exciting it is to have a player going in the last game of the week.
15. Jarvis Landry at New England Patriots
Jarvis ‘Juice’ Landry is the epitome of a safety blanket in the NFL. The career league leader in receptions over his first two seasons is back at it again in 2016 and gets to take on a Patriots defense that allowed eight catches and two touchdowns to fellow slot man Larry Fitzgerald in week 1. In essentially only three career games versus New England, Juice has posted an average of 6.7 catches and 80 yards per game. The end zone is as familiar to Landry as Oz was for Dorothy, but the targets and receptions make up for it. A top-10 red zone target guy in 2015 with 23, leaves the door open for hope of a monster game in any given week. So here’s to clicking his heels three times and getting in the end zone this week.
16. Stefon Diggs vs Green Bay Packers
Breaking onto the scene like your favorite boy band years ago, Stefon Diggs got the fantasy world excited only to fall by the wayside at year’s end. The Green Bay Packers bring a top-10 rated secondary according to PFF, but the way Minnesota is utilizing Diggs, there is no way to key on him. Catching seven of his nine targets against Tennessee in week one for more than 100 yards, the young wideout lined up all over the formation and saw targets in five of the six different areas of the field. According to NFLsavant, Diggs breakdown looked like a youtube video gone viral. Expect Minnesota to rely on a heavier passing game script in a matchup which they find themselves as a home underdog. For the newbies to the gambling lingo, when you’re at home you're supposed to win, so to be an underdog in your own house is not a promising situation.
17. Golden Tate vs Tennesse Titans
Tennessee doesn't have the worst secondary in the league. There are a whopping two other teams below them. Golden Tate is going to feed in this up-tempo offense. The Lions ran the no-huddle 40% of the time on Sunday according to snap count info at pro football reference. Tate caught four of his seven balls in that tempo and brought in a 100% catch rate on the day. Yes, 100%. That means there were zero mis-cues between him and the quarter back that piloted him to 90+ receptions two years in a row. If I'm not painting this picture well enough for you, Tate is good and his quarterback loves him. Tennessee comes into the game slightly below average against wide receivers in a fantasy capacity. Pro football focus ranks their secondary in the bottom-three of the league and the Football Outsiders DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average) ranks Tennessee 27th against opposing team’s wide receiver one and 31st against their wide receiver two. It’s going to be a nice day for the Detroit passing attack.
18. Sammy Watkins vs New York Jets
So I woke up this morning to news about Sammy Watkins that sounded like they had to amputate his foot, only to find out hours later that he feels fine and expects to play on Thursday night. That’s the media for you. How quickly can we get out information with no concern of its validity. Well here’s something that is true. In Sammy Watkins four games against the New York Jets he has a per game average of 5 catches - 85.5 yards - 0.25 touchdowns (FFToday). This includes a week 17 showdown with Darrelle Revis that saw Watkins haul in 11 passes for 136 yards. I would also like to point out that Revis Island is nothing more that a subplot on a spinoff series of Lost. He followed up last year’s season ending performance with a stellar one against AJ Green in week one where the wideout caught 12 balls for a couple thousand yards and a touchdown. Pro Football Focus ranks the Jets secondary this year in the bottom half of the league at #18 and if anyone knows how to monitor a foot injury, it’s head coach Rex Ryan (if you don’t get that reference just Google it).
19. Brandin Cooks at New York Giants
I should just post the box score from this matchup a year ago where the Saints were victors 52-49. Brandin Cooks coming off a monster week one against Oakland will head north to New York and look to repeat his 6-88-2 line from a year ago. I’ve been told the defenses in this game are going to lineup on an optional basis. Perhaps newly signed corner Janoris Jenkins and freshly drafted Eli Apple will bring a halt to the fireworks we’re used to, but what will that make it? 40-35? The Giant’s have a lot of work to do to improve from their 6th worst finish against wideouts last year in points per game (FFToday). Only the Steelers posted a worse reception total to wide receivers last year and on a Drew Brees run offense you can bet the open man will be found. The chemistry between Cooks and Brees continues to grow and neither The Big or Eli Apple will disrupt it this weekend.
20. Marvin Jones vs Tennesse Titans
If you’ve read my Golden Tate breakdown you’ll know just how porous the Titans secondary is against both the wide receiver one and wide receiver two. The Football Outsiders DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average) measure has them ranked 27th and 31st in those areas respectively. Since there has been a slight debate between which wideout is the number one option in this Detroit offense, I felt it was necessary to fill you in on just how much the Titans don't care who they're bad against. They will be just as miserable to either one. Per pro football reference, Marvin Jones led the team in snaps with 61 and targets with 10. Detroit is notorious for their passing frequency with a 64% to 36% pass versus rush percentage in 2015 (fftoday.com) and week one showed a similar breakdown with a 61% to 39% tick. Stats stats stats. This paints the picture of an offense that can support two wideouts in a matchup that warrants success to this position.
21. Tajae Sharpe at Detroit Lions
Tajae Sharpe started out as an OTA go-getter and ended up as the number one wide receiver for the Tennessee Titans. So much so that the Titans dealt their 2015 project in Dorial Green-Beckham to Philly. The fifth round selection out of UMass turned heads in the pre-season and has continued to do so with his 11 targets in week one versus a difficult Vikings defense. Week two will provide a much more friendly matchup, just ask Andrew Luck and his 385 yards and four touchdowns. With co-wideouts in Indy demanding diva like attention for an offensive coordinator in week one, they saw a combined 19 targets and 12 receptions versus the Lions. Sharpe controlled the attention himself in week one and saw only one less reception than all the other wide receivers for Tennessee combined. Detroit’s DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average) measured by the Football Outsiders puts them in the bottom quarter (24th) of the league against an opponents wide receiver one. If you trust the Titans number two wideout Andre Johnson, who’s nearly old enough to be Sharpe’s father, feel free to play him. I will settle in on the comfortable security blanket Marcus Mariota has found in the rookie Sharpe.
22. Steve Smith @ Cleveland Browns
Yes, this is the same Steve Smith that went over 1,000 yards 13 years ago in 2003. And yes, it is the same guy who used his achilles as a salad topping half-way through the season last year. Well, he’s back and he saw nine targets in week one. Cleveland ranked 4th worst against wide receivers in fantasy points per game (39.4) and 2nd worst against yardage gained from wideouts (185 per game). We saw just how much they fixed their issues in week one when Jordan Matthews posted a game line of 7-114-1. And as a friendly reminder, we’re talking about a Baltimore Ravens offense that lead the league in pass attempts just a year ago. Smith’s previous two games against Cleveland had a per game average of 6.5-95.5-0 which nets a PPR score just north of 15 points. Corner’s Tramon and K’Waun Williams had their hands full in week one and I don’t expect things to change this Sunday.
23. Emmanuel Sanders vs Indianapolis Colts
With Demaryius Thomas getting a second opinion on his hip injury suffered in week one, Emmanuel Sanders has being building a rapport with rookie quarter back Trevor Simian. In three career games versus the Colts while being with Denver, Sanders has posted a 6.3-71-0.33 per game line. The Colts themselves have struggled with wide receivers in 2015 with a bottom ten finish in points per game against and to make matters worse they are missing top corner Vontae Davis for the first month of the season and the guy they were leaning on to fill in, Patrick Robinson, suffered from concussion-like symptoms during week one and is uncertain for this week. This unit was hitting from behind the eight ball when things were going normal, but now their woes will be echoed throughout the league as teams take advantage of their inexperience in defending the pass.
24. Jeremy Maclin at Houston Texans
Isn't this the guy who plays in the most vanilla low volume offense in the league? Well the Chiefs mounted a comeback as if they were from Canada this past week and led the league in passing attempts with 48. Jeremy Maclin found the end zone again which gives him a score in six of his last seven regular season games (FFToday). What I love about Maclin is his consistent work in that offense and his a safe bet to finish as a WR2 with upside week in and week out. In three regular season contests versus Houston, Maclin has posted a 16-278-2 line which is good for 5.3-92.6-0.67 per game average (FFToday). The safety net in a fantasy lineup is underrated and Maclin provides just that. He’s the clear target at wide receiver for Alex Smith who checks off of is other option, Travis Kelce, more often than Mark Sanchez switches uniforms.
25. DeSean Jackson vs Dallas Cowboys
The most popular pick in the NFL Draft this year may very well have been Ezekiel Elliot at No. 4 by the Dallas Cowboys. Judging by the cornerback grades from Pro Fooball Football Focus, Dallas should have considered the Florida State University stud, Jalen Ramsey. Dallas comes in to 2016 as the 27th ranked unit according to PFF, and even with the return of Orlando Scandrick, offenses don’t have much to fear. Eli Manning made this clear in Week 1 with his three touchdown passes to three different pass-catchers. DeSean Jackson enters this matchup as the clear favorite wideout target of quarterback Kirk Cousins with a 10 target and 6-102 game line from last week’s Monday Night contest, but the real juicy numbers are found over DeSean’s previous three games versus this division rival. During his short career with Washington, by way of Philadelphia, Jackson has a weekly average of 5-101-1 versus the Dallas Cowboys. In other words, WOW!