Episode 16: Week 2 Match-ups and info

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Round 2 - RB's

Winning a fantasy football season starts with the draft and being able to find values in each round. Everyone has a different philosophy and there isn't one right way, but what they all have in common is the ability to draft a guy who will perform above their suggested value.  This is why creating your rankings needs to be based on more than just numbers from the previous year.  As of today there are five running backs coming off the board in round 2.

For me personally, what I look for are players I have ranked higher than where they are being drafted and if there is a way I can exploit that value.  It pretty much starts in round 2 since everyone drafted in round 1 is a perceived 'stud.'  Here are the ADP's (fantasyfootbalcalculator.com) and my projections for the five RB's being drafted in the 2nd round:

Devonta Freeman - ADP 2.02 (5th overall RB) - My Ranking = 10th overall RB
Season
G
Att
Tar
Rec
Yards
TD
yds/touch
FPTS
2015
15
264
97
73
1,639
14
4.8
320.9
final 8 games 2015
8
133
53
39
708
4
4.1
*
16 game pace
16
266
106
78
1,416
8
4.1
267.6
2016 projection
16
200
100
75
1,210
9
4.4
250

Lamar Miller - ADP 2.03 (6th overall RB) - My Ranking = 3rd overall RB
Season
G
Att
Tar
Rec
Yards
TD
yds/touch
FPTS
2015 (Miami)
16
194
57
47
1,269
10
5.3
233.9
2016 projection
16
310
76
57
1,835
11
5.0
306.5
------> Projection based on Houston's RB usage last 2 years.

Jamaal Charles - ADP 2.03 (7th overall RB) - My Ranking = 4th overall RB
Season
G
Att
Tar
Rec
Yards
TD
yds/touch
FPTS
2015
5
71
30
21
541
5
5.9
101.1
16 game pace
16
227
96
67
1,731
16
5.9
336.1
2016 projection
15
200
78
55
1,504
13
5.9
283.4

Ezekiel Elliot - ADP 2.07 (8th overall RB) - My Ranking = 8th overall RB
Season
G
Att
Tar
Rec
Yards
TD
yds/touch
FPTS
2016 projection
16
290
60
40
1,584
10
4.8
258.4
------> Projection based on McFadden's production in 11 games started in 2015.

Eddie Lacy - ADP 2.10 (9th overall RB) - My Ranking = 11th overall RB
Season
G
Att
Tar
Rec
Yards
TD
yds/touch
FPTS
2015
15
187
28
20
946
5
4.6
140.6
final 8 games 2015
8
106
13
11
594
4
5.1
*
16 game pace
16
212
26
22
1,188
8
5.1
188.8
2016 projection
16
240
45
36
1,407
10
5.1
236.7

Based off my rankings versus where these second round running backs are being drafted I will be avoiding Devonta Freeman and Eddie Lacy.  I have them being overvalued for what I believe their return will provide.  I have Ezekiel Elliot at fair value and depending on what I do with my first pick and who is still available in the second round I would consider him there (although I think closer to the season his ADP will be at the end of the first round).  Finally, Lamar Miller and Jamaal Charles are two guys I would be aiming to get.  This allows me to draft a high end WR with my first pick and if I want to go RB with my second pick I feel I would be getting a top 5 guy at the position.  This is the concept of how I go about my draft process.  I'll post a few rounds similar to this at some point.




  

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