RB Sleepers (July 30th)

Two things are constantly talked about throughout the fantasy football offseason: Who's going be your first round pick and who are some sleepers.  "Sleepers" is a word thrust into the ever changing lingo of the fantasy world and it also has an array of definitions.  For me it is simple, a sleeper is a player you pick that is going to out produce his value by a hefty amount.  For example, if you draft a guy as the #35 RB and he finishes the season as the #12 RB then you've got yourself a sleeper.  I put together a list of players drafted last year from the 6th round on that performed at sleeper status and compared them to players being drafted in 2016 that have the potential to produce at the same capacity.  I find that comparing players and their situation is the best way to find these guys.  I am just looking for a correlation between these ADP numbers and how guys outperformed them.

WR Sleepers (July 29th)

Every few weeks of draft season in fantasy football we see ADP (average draft position) of players fluctuate depending on the current news fed to us like cattle.  I think it's important to have a reference point to what some of these ADP's actually mean.  What I like to do, and will share with you now, is to look back to last year (2015) and see where some of the sleeper value's were and compare that to a few players being drafted this year that hold similar potential.  For example, Larry Fitzgerald was drafted in the 7th round last year as the WR34 and finished the season as the WR7.  Amazing value right?  This would qualify as a sleeper.  So for me I look at the wide receivers being drafted in the mid-30's this year and see who could potentially do what Fitz did last year.  It's a simple process and it helps keep my focus through the draft.  Reminding myself that there is incredible talent to be gotten in every round.

Quick Hit: The Jets

With all the confusion of how to project the Jets this season let's re-visit what they're capable of now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is at the helm.  The key to this situation doesn't necessarily stem from Fitzpatrick's evaluation as an actual NFL quarterback... It really has most to do with the chemistry involved between the offensive pieces and the Chan Gailey (offensive coordinator).  Three main pieces I would target in this offense:

Best & Worst ADP Values Rounds 1-5 (July 27th)

As every round of the draft passes there are values that come and go.  The deeper into the draft you go the more value is waiting to be had.  Let me explain what I mean... In round one I am drafting a player that I fully expect to carry my team.  This is not a value pick.  If I draft DeAndre Hopkins and he has an amazing season, well that is what I drafted him for, it is expected.  Now let's take round eight last year.  Devonta Freeman was taken at the back end of that round in hopes for maybe a usable flex option and ends up finishing as a top scoring fantasy player and number one at his position.  THAT is value.  It happens in every round and as the 'sexiness' of players being drafted gets less and less it is at this time the most value can be had... don't miss out on it.

Quick Hit: Josh Gordon

Josh Gordon has been reinstated and will serve a 4-game suspension to start the season.  Interestingly enough he will return the same week as Tom Brady as New England takes on the Browns in week 5.

A reminder that Josh Gordon led the league at the wide receiver position with only playing 14 games in 2013.  Many forget how below average he played in the 5 games he played in 2014:

• 47 targets
• 24 receptions
• 303 yards
• 0 TD's

Ultimately I think this destroys the value of Corey Coleman and Gary Barnidge who both were relying on volume to be valuable in 2015.  As far as ranking Gordon this year, we all know his ceiling is sky high, but with the suspension and time to get acclimated back to the game of football I think his best value will come later in the season and in 2017.  WR3 is as high as I can go with Gordon right now.

Sammy Watkins: Player Profile

Here's a stat:  The Bills quarterbacks led the AFC in passer rating to a wide receiver when targeting Sammy Watkins.  Here's another stat:  The final nine games of the season, which Watkins played healthy in all of them, he was on pace for 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns.  A first round talent that is falling in drafts because of his foot injury suffered in OTA's (April).  Reports of late have been very good as far as Watkins recovery and when we were once wondering about his availability for week one we are now under the impression he may return to the field during training camp.

4th-8th Round Value

The excitement surrounding draft time in fantasy football always seems to stem from who your first round pick is going to be.  I am constantly fielding questions about which player should be taken in the top 6 picks or what two guys would I take with picks eleven & twelve.  I do enjoy those questions, mostly because they are the easiest to answer and it's typically fun to talk about stud players, but the draft goes so much deeper than these studs.  The saying out there is "you can't win your league with your first pick, but you can lose your league with it."  I couldn't disagree with this anymore than I do.  The league is not won or lost with the first round pick, not even close.  In my opinion the league is won through many facets of a fantasy season.  Every little part plays its role; the waiver wire, trades, evaluating when a player is due for a decline compared to finding players with a fortunate schedule in weeks to come and of course the draft.  When dealing with the draft I like to focus on rounds 4-8 as the most crucial collection of players I acquire on my team.

Round 1 Draft Strategy: Picks 7-12

Similar to what I did for the first six picks of round one I will do here with the last half of the round.  Again, when you look at these charts it is simply a pecking order for me.  I suggest you make one for yourself for the first round.  When a guy is drafted you just cross him off your list and choose the highest ranked guy.  I do this with the second round in mind as well.  You will see in my rankings that I have Mike Evans ranked higher than most guys that I have as a choice in picks 7-12, but given ADP data I can tell that I have a good chance of getting Evans on the way back in round two so I don't feel it is smart to use a first round pick on him even though I have him ranked higher.  These are very simple concepts learned over time and put to practice in many mock drafts.  It's a great time of year people and honestly what else is there to do?  Work?  Please... it's all eye wash.

The Le'Veon Bell Wildcard

Le’Veon Bell is playing the role of the crazy ex-girlfriend as good  as anyone in the league right now.  Just when you think things are all good he reminds you why you walked away in the first place.  With another suspension looming for Bell we find ourselves in a similar predicament as last offseason.  The major difference in 2016 is that we know what DeAngelo Williams can offer and he is the reason we all should potentially be ‘excited’ about a Bell suspension.  Yes, I said it….  Excited.

Adrian Peterson: Player Profile

The more I looked into Adrian Peterson's career the more I realized he is a Hall of Fame running back, but at the same time I realized just how 'okay' he is in PPR fantasy leagues compared to the expectations we, as drafters, have of him.  In a fantasy landscape shifting towards wide receivers holding more value in the first round we are constantly asking ourselves which running backs deserve to come off the board first.  Average draft position over the past seven years shows Peterson as the first or second choice in four of them, but does he warrant that? I really don't think so.

Round 1 Draft Strategy: Picks 1-6

Round 1of fantasy drafts is a fickle beast at times although one would think making your very first pick should be the easier part of the process.  What I decided to do is make a chart showing how I would go about that pick from every spot. There are some scenarios that I will describe to maybe help understand one humble guy's way of dealing with this first round.  These charts show who I value the most and the order in which I would draft the player depending on who is still available (PPR drafts).

AJ Green: Player Profile

One of the most consistent WR's of the last four years is staring down the barrel of a potential monster season.  Marvin Jones is now in Detroit.  Mohamed Sanu finds himself in Atlanta and Tyler Eifert is expected to miss a handful of games with his ever lingering ankle injury from the Pro Bowl.  This leaves an excess of more than 150 targets to be spread around that passing game.

Cam Newton can't be #1 says history

Everyone has that decision between 2 players at a position and there doesn't seem to be a way to decide between them.  Have you ever flipped a coin between your #1 and #2 ranked player?  Maybe even dug down deep in the bag of magical tricks and uttered this famous line, "If I make this shot I am taking this guy and if I miss I am taking that guy."  I am guilty of all of the above and I may have even found myself not really wanting to make the shot I was taking.  As surefire as these methods may be I decided to find something on paper that leads me in the right direction in deciding which QB I want to rank at #1 this season.  The results are nearly undisputed and unfortunately for Cam Newton there is basically zero chance he finishes as the #1 guy in 2016.  Yes Cam, you heard me.

Stats We Should Know

Every year around this time we thrive for information about our favorite fake football leagues. We're insatiable when it comes to this, especially when this info is geared towards a Twitter debate we are hoping to win.  The trick is to take these nuggets for what they're worth and the truth is it may not be as important as you think.  Let us not forget that we are dealing with actual people doing actual things and although we can look for tendencies there is often no reason to the madness.  Most statistical analysis will aid you in the longevity of success in the fantasy world similar to that of a blackjack table. That little card we have all read on what to do with a 14 when the dealer is showing a 7 is nothing more than a mathematical probability of the most favorable outcome for us over an extended period of time.... it does not mean you will win THAT hand.  If you view fantasy football analysis in this manner you will not only garner a better reputation in the game, but will certainly sleep more soundly during the week.

Tight End Theory

If you want a top 7 performer at the tight end position DO NOT draft one before the 8th round.

2016 Strength of Schedule

Fantasy strength of schedule is a piece of information that you can use at your leisure.  It's tricky because the truth is we really have no idea which teams are going to improve on what they did last year until we actually see it.  What may seem like a favorable matchup at this point could end up being one to avoid when the time comes.  For me I like to use this stuff as maybe a tie breaker between 2 or 3 players that I am deciding on.

Jarvis Landry: Player Profile

Jarvis "Juice" Landry has been doing nothing but catching passes in his first two seasons and still the guy can't get any respect.  Stuck in what seemed to be an underachieving offense, Landry has been able to set an NFL record for most receptions in the first 2 years of a player's career (195).  If this doesn't scream PPR gold  I don't know what does.