The first thing to understand about the QB position is that you are only drawing from a pool of 12 players. This is not like RB and WR where you are often times drawing from a pool of 40-50 players. This is called positional replaceability. You are far more likely to be able to replace a position that only rosters 12 starting players as opposed to one that rosters 40+ starting players.
Secondly, the idea that a 6-pt per passing TD league being more valuable to the QB position than a 4-pt per passing TD league is closer to false than it is the truth. You have to remember that you are never comparing the scoring at the QB position to the RB and WR positions. You are comparing the scoring of your QB to ALL THE OTHER QB's. Everyone on the list gets the bump in scoring in the format. The difference is negligible within the position. For example, let's look at the #5 scoring QB last year versus the #12 scoring QB:
| QB |
Yards
|
TD
|
INT
|
6-pt Score
|
4-pt Score
|
| Carson Palmer #5 QB |
4,671
|
35
|
11
|
374.84
|
304.84
|
| Philip Rivers #12 QB |
4,793
|
29
|
13
|
339.72
|
281.72
|
The difference between these two in a 6-pt TD league is 35.12 fantasy points (2.2 points per game). In a 4-pt TD league the difference is 23.12 fantasy points (1.4 points per game).
The scoring format values and de-values all the QB's in the group the same. You are not scoring much differently. The biggest change comes from those QB's that tend to score rushing TD's. A 6-pt TD league will HURT these QB's because now the extra points they are getting with their legs are nullified. The total TD count is all the same. I still don't think it's enough to sway you to take these QB's early because rushing TD's are very circumstantial and hard to predict. Kirk Cousins had 5 rushing TD's last year and Russell Wilson had 1.
Here is a list of the top-10 scoring QB's last year and their ADP:
- Cam Newton (10.11)
- Tom Brady (6.07)
- Russell Wilson (6.09)
- Blake Bortles (un-drafted)
- Carson Palmer (11.08)
- Drew Brees (5.09)
- Eli Manning (9.10)
- Aaron Rodgers (3.03)
- Matthew Stafford (8.11)
- Kirk Cousins (un-drafted)
Six of these top-10 were drafted from basically the 9th round and later. Some of which you could have gotten off the waiver wire. But still you want to take your QB in the 4th round? Why? Legitimately ask yourself why you want to take a QB at that spot when the 10th ranked QB last year scored 3.5 points per game less than the 3rd ranked QB. And the 12th ranked QB scored 3.25 less points per game than the 4th ranked QB? Typically the #1 scoring QB will give you a nice advantage at that position but the entire point of this rant is that we never know who that is going to be! We know the guys that have typically done well in the past but if we don't hit on that ONE guy then we have essentially just wasted a pick. As evidenced by the scoring similarities between the guys at the bottom versus guys towards the top.
Well who should you draft if you are not going to take a QB? I will give you my strategy in drafts for 2016. I happen to find my best teams are when I go WR heavy early in drafts. I want to win that position. I am not concerned with having a 'balanced' team. I think a balanced team will help you finish in 5th or 6th place. I want to win a position and then hit a home run with a player or two from another position. So in order for me to increase my chances at hitting that home run I need to pull from a high volume of choices. Ideally for me I have been taking 4 WR's to start my draft and ending up with five or six RB's between rounds 5-9. There are RB's that I value in all these rounds that I think have a chance to hit. BUT if I take a round off to grab a QB (which I don't think gives me any advantage) then I am missing out on a certain tier of production from the RB position.
If I can get Donte Moncrief in Round 4 I typically do that because I am so high on him, but if I can't then I will start my RB run there. If I can get a combination of as many of these guys betweens round 4/5 and 9/10 then I think I can do damage this year:
- Jeremy Langford
- DeMarco Murray
- Carlos Hyde
- Latavius Murray
- Jeremy Hill
- Melvin Gordon
- Giovani Bernard
- Ryan Mathews
- Arian Foster
- Frank Gore
- Rashad Jennings
- Charles Sims
- Theo Riddick
- James White
- TJ Yeldon
- Bilal Powell
- Chris Thompson
In doing this I am left with QB's like:
- Derek Carr
- Kirk Cousins
- Tyrod Taylor
- Philip Rivers
- Matthew Stafford
- Jameis Winston
- Andy Dalton
- Matt Ryan
- Ryan Tannehill
I am plenty happy with this group. Many of which have some combination of either 4,000+ passing yards or 30+ TD's and sometimes both. The depth that I created coupled with one or two of these QB's puts me in a position I feel comfortable with