I don't want to go game by game. I did that in my week 1 podcast, which you can find on this site and also on iTunes. I will simply hit on a lot of random news and notes about teams and players and you do with it what you will:
News & Notes
The Miami Dolphins gave up 28.25 rushing attempts per game to running backs last year (worst in the league). They gave up 21 total touchdowns to running backs in 2015 (league worst). This certainly smells like a wonderful opportunity for starting running back Christine Michael and also soon-to-be starter Thomas Rawls. There is enough opportunity here to support both of these guys at an RB2 level.
As Graham Barfield mentioned this week, the Seattle Seahawks struggled last season with in-line pass catchers (slot wide receivers and tight ends). This is relevant for Jarvis Landry in week 1 simply because he runs from the slot nearly 70% of the time and all-pro corner Richard Sherman does not follow wide receivers in the slot. He logged only 19 snaps covering that position in all of 2015. Here are some of the games from these in-line wideouts in 2015:
- Greg Olsen 6-77-1
- Larry Fitzgerald 10-130 & 6-55-1
- Markus Wheaton 9-201-1
- Randall Cobb 9-116
- Jeremy Butler 7-72
Mike Evans will more than likely be shadowed by Atlanta's top corner, Desmond Trufant. Not an ideal matchup for Evans, but still a talent that can only be held down for so long. Evans did have a 7-125-1 game against Atlanta in 2014.
There are few factors in the TB vs ATL game that point to Charles Sims and Doug Martin having a nice fantasy day.
- Atlanta is starting two rookie linebackers - Deion Jones and De'Vondre Campbell
- Atlanta ranked dead last in 2015 against opposing running backs reception totals (118). They were ranked worst for opposing running backs passing targets with 8.5 per game. Sims had 65 targets and 51 receptions last year.
- Atlanta ranked 2nd worst in total TD's given up to running backs (16)
The Cincinnati Bengals ranked near the top of the league against running backs fantasy points per game last year, but they were susceptible to running backs who catch passes (5th worst giving up 102 receptions). This sounds like Gio Bernard's territory. Although I do expect Jeremy Hill to catch more passes this year. We did see some of that game-plan in the pre-season.
Willie Snead played 29% of his snaps in the slot last season and so far this pre-season he has played there 75% of the time. This screams volume of catches in this New Orleans offense.
Brandin Cooks does not have as good of a matchup as this game shows on the surface. According to Matt Harmon's reception perception study, Cooks struggled against press coverage and that is what Oakland will do with their big corners, David Amerson and Sean Smith who they signed this offseason from KC. I expect the volume of this game to provide numbers for Cooks, but I do prefer Willie Snead in this game.
New Orleans gave 27 TD's to wide receivers last year. The Raiders tied for worst in the league with touchdowns given up to tight ends. Coby Fleener is no the lone wolf in New Orleans looking to cash in on this.
Pat Thorman dropped a banger stat this past week about Andy Dalton and AJ Green. Dalton against the blitz last year and a 114 QB rating with 8 touchdowns and 0 INT's. He was 26-33 for 445 yards and 3 TD's when targeting AJ Green when under pressure. And the Jets were the 3rd highest blitzing team in 2015, blitzing at a rate of 42.5% of the time.
The New York Giants and Detroit Lions were sneaky terrible covering tight ends last season. The Giants were 2nd worst in points per game to TE's. Worst in receptions and yards. Jason Witten may be a very nice play on Sunday (he went 8-60-2 week 1 versus the Giants last year). The Lions gave up 11 games last year with tight ends scoring double-digit fantasy points. Dwayne Allen is now alone in that Indy offense with Fleener headed to the Saints and Andrew Luck has 101 career touchdowns with 30% of them going to tight ends.
Eli Manning on attempted 60 total passes against the Cowboys in two games last year. Zero touchdowns. Dallas will look to slow the game to their pace like we've seen them do in the past.
This Detroit Lions offense looks to potentially lead the league in passing attempts this year. They ran the no-huddle offense 7% of the time last year and so far in the preseason we've seen them run this no-huddle 62% of the time. With a completely beat up defense for the Colts, it should be a feeding show for these wide receivers and Theo Riddick
Patrick Peterson shadow covered #1 wideouts last year in 11 games giving up 0 TD's. Say goodnight to Julian Edelman on Sunday.
Top corner for the Chiefs, Marcus Peters, stayed on the left side of the defense most all of last year and Keenan Allen worked the slot and right side on 66% of his snaps. Keenan's ability to move around the formations is exactly why he is such target monster and I don't expect that to change.
Washington was 4th worst in touchdowns given up to WR's. Pittsburgh worst in the league in yards given up to wideouts. This game is going to be fun. Start your guys and grab the popcorn.
Toddy Gurley last year versus San Fran = 20-133-1 and 3 catches for an extra 13 yards. San Fran is the only defense last year to give up and average of more than 1 touchdown per game to running backs. Gurley is going to eat.
What to watch for:
- How the Jets use their running backs on the goal-line. I expect Matt Forte to get a crack at it, but he is the 3rd worst ranked RB since 2007 on touchdown conversions inside the 5-yard line. Bilal Powell may get more action than we think.
- The chemistry between Vance McDonald and Blaine Gabbert. We've heard Gabbert talk about it and we've seen it in the pre-season. I expect him to be the #1 option in the passing game for the 49ers this year. In Chip Kelly offenses the most targeted pass catcher is his slot receiver and the tight end is the 2nd most.
- Jordy Nelson is supremely efficient and will get his numbers against Jacksonville. Randall Cobb should be able to take advantage of rookie Jalen Ramsey in this match-up.
- Jeremy Langford should see enough volume to be fantasy relevant against a tough Houston defense. Week 1 last year against Houston, Travis Kelce dropped 6 for 106 and 2 TD's. Look for Zach Miller to find some holes in this defense down the seam.
- The Titans released pass catching running back Dexter McCluster so this is a real nice opportunity for DeMarco Murray to add to the volume we already expected him to see in this "exotic smash-mouth" scheme of Mike Mularky.