As we approach our draft day it's always beneficial to find a few informational nuggets that help sway you between two players. I have admittedly flipped a coin in the past and let's just say it didn't go well (Landed on taking Charles Johnson over Allen Robinson). So what I'll do today is share some statistical info that may open (or shut) your eyes on a few fantasy darlings in 2016.
- Carlos Hyde has 57 receptions in 62 career games (college and pro). His expected 3rd down role is not solidified, but I would be weary to expect a huge impact in the passing game.
- Bilal Powell's importance to the Jets offense is very understated this offseason. He was re-signed for $6million guaranteed dollars (Matt Forte was signed for $8million guaranteed). Powell set a pace for himself down the stretch, playing at a level that would give him 85 receptions and 1,200+ yards in a 16 game season. He ranked 2nd behind Danny Woodhead in % of passes resulting in a first down (45% - 21 of 47). Main thing to take away from this stat is how important of a role he plays and the chemistry he has with his quarterback.
- Jarvis Landry with 23 red-zone targets (tied for 7th) resulting in only 4 touchdowns is something I expect to rise. New head coach Adam Gase has had success with players in Landry's role (Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders).
- DeAndre Hopkins had 192 targets last season. The final eight games of the season Houston found a running game and the defense decided to play to their potential. In those eight games Hopkins saw only 80 targets (160 target pace over 16 games). Be careful drafting Hopkins assuming the same volume. The addition of Lamar Miller is without question a better running game situation than they were used to last year.
- Demaryius Thomas had a 10 TD pace the final eight games of the season with some of the worst QB play possible. In fact, the Denver QB's combined to be the 29th scoring QB in FPts/game last year. So let's not worry too much who will be under center for Denver this year. His catch rate dropped to 49% in non-Peyton Manning games last year and I fully expect the chemistry he has been able to obtain this pre-season will push that rate closer to his career average of 61%.
- Rob Gronkowski has finished in the top-12 of fantasy scorers just once in his career. He is currently being drafted in the top-12. If it's positional separation you look for in Gronk, well in the past two seasons he has separated himself from the #3 scoring tight end by an average of only 28 points. This doesn't strike me as a very good first round pick UNLESS you expect a 2011 type season from the big guy (330.9 PPR points).
- Larry Fitzgerald caught 75% of his passes in 2015. His highest catch rate before that was 63% in 2009. Some people say it's because he moved to the slot. He moved to the slot in 2013 and had a 60% catch rate for two straight years. John Brown is currently dealing with concussion symptoms. Michael Floyd is due to break through as the clear guy to own in this three-headed monster situation in Arizona.
- Since Odell Beckham Jr.'s first game played in week 5 of 2014 he is leading the league in TD's with 25. Next closest is Rob Gronkowski with 20.
- Adrian Peterson has finished as a top-3 PPR running back just twice in his career. Last year being one of them and it was a total score that would have barely finished top-5 in the last decade. Please let someone else draft him in the first round.
