Tom Brady: Player Profile

Perhaps the greatest quarterback in NFL history will find himself watching the first four games of the season in a similar fashion as you and I, from his couch.  The question in our fake football world now turns to how we should handle quantifying his production in twelve games with what that value will cost us in drafts.  It is a fair assessment and I've got a few ideas of what to do.

Brady is currently being drafted in the middle of the seventh round, according to FF Calculator (7.05).  Are you willing to spend that pick on a quarterback knowing you will have to draft another one for the first four games?  Looking at the QB's I can get in round nine and later I think it is a perfectly acceptable plan.  Let me say this first, I personally prefer to wait until very late in the draft to grab my quarterback, but I realize this isn't always the case with fantasy owners so formatting a plan for Brady is what I wanted to look at here. First let's break down Brady's situation and see if he is even worth the headache in 2016:

Tom Brady

• Brady played pretty much weeks 1-9 with Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman healthy last season and posted absurd numbers during that time while leading New England to a 9-0 record.  
• The talk of the addition of Martellus Bennett and potentially running more 2-TE sets doesn't ring true with me given the success they had with the offense through the first nine games last year.  My belief is it is a way to be able to transition if they are plagued with injuries again.  Last year they were stuck with their personnel being a one dimensional offense when the wheels fell off.  This strikes me as an insurance of sorts. 

Season	G	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FPTS
2015	16	624	4,770	36	7	34	53	3	416.1
week 1-9	8	328	2,709	22	2	*	*	2	*
16 gm pace	16	656	5,418	44	4	*	*	4	496.7
2016 Projection	12	472	3,675	30	6	*	*	2	327

When I see these numbers my eyes pop and I wonder if maybe I should consider Brady in the 7th.  Those projected 327 points for twelve games gives Brady 27.25 points/game.  For comparison he was at a 26 pts/game tick last year when he finished as the #2 guy behind Cam (29.2 pts/game).

Now the next step is to find what we will have to do for the first four weeks of the season if we decide to pull the trigger on Brady.  Here's a list of three guys that I think have favorable schedules in the first four weeks of the season and can easily be paired with Brady given their ADP:

	Derek Carr: ADP 9.10		Kirk Cousins: ADP 10.09		Matthew Stafford: ADP 11.10
1	@ New Orleans Saints	1	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	@ Indianapolis Colts
2	Atlanta Falcons	2	Dallas Cowboys	2	Tennessee Titans
3	@ Tennessee Titans	3	@ New York Giants	3	@ Green Bay Packers
4	@ Baltimore Ravens	4	Cleveland Browns	4	@ Chicago Bears

I did look at Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor, who I think have nice fantasy seasons, but their early schedules don't make me feel I am maximizing my potential points from the QB position knowing I am playing Brady the rest of the year when he comes back.