Derek Carr: QB1 Upside
The next few minutes of reading will be my attempt to show you how valuable a commodity Carr can be for the depth of your fantasy team. Allowing you to focus elsewhere earlier in the draft and still land strong QB play is the strategy here. First, let’s look at the young quarterback’s progression over his first two seasons and what may be in store for 2016.
Progression
Carr improved in major categories from year one to year two:
- Completion % - - 58.1% to 61.1%
- Passing Yards - - 3,270 to 3,987
- Touchdowns - - 21 to 32
- Rushing yards - - 87 to 138
- Fantasy points per game increased by 6 pts/game
These improvements came in a year with a new coaching staff and two first time wide receivers in the offense, one being a rookie. It doesn't get mentioned enough when projecting Carr for 2016 and I believe a full offseason working in the same scheme with the same personnel is as important as as everything else.
Results & Expectations
| 2015 Season |
G
|
Att
|
Cmp%
|
Yards
|
TD
|
INT
|
Rush Att
|
Rush Yds
|
Rush TD
|
| First 8 Games |
8
|
273
|
64%
|
2,094
|
19
|
4
|
11
|
33
|
0
|
| Last 8 Games |
8
|
300
|
59%
|
1,893
|
13
|
9
|
22
|
105
|
0
|
| Total |
16
|
573
|
61.1%
|
3,987
|
32
|
13
|
33
|
138
|
0
|
| 2016 Projection |
16
|
595
|
63%
|
4,181
|
33
|
13
|
30
|
140
|
0
|
What we see from above is a tale of two seasons. The way Carr and the Raiders played in the first half was something the fantasy world was getting accustomed too. Things obviously changed and what it looked like as a fan, watching from the couch, was a young team that suffered a hiccup and didn't know how to respond. This very aspect I trust will be handled with the consistency of personnel I mentioned earlier.
Two things jump out at me when I try to rationalize the difference between the two halves. First, Carr’s pace in the first eight games is remarkable and he did it missing nearly all of week one. Attempting only 12 passes for 61 yards before leaving with an injury. We are talking a near 4,200 yard / 38 TD pace in only seven games with no real outlier performance in any one week during that stretch. Secondly, there was the leg injury to Amari Cooper later in the season that resulted in near zero production in three of the last four games from the wideout. A quarterback’s top target becoming nothing more than a decoy is rarely a positive scenario.
Given the situation described, I am inclined to settle on the the first half being what to expect from Carr and the Raiders in 2016. An improved offensive line (PFF ranks them #2 heading into the season) - the drafting of pass catching running back DeAndre Washington - a full season, offseason, training camp and pre-season with the same coaching staff, system and playmakers - and an eight game showing last year of this potential is more than enough for me to count on Derek Carr for a higher end fantasy scoring season in 2016. Let’s also not forget the ever-so-meaningless week in fantasy football, known as week 17, will be played against the ferocious defense of the Denver Broncos. That tough divisional matchup doesn't hurt the strength of schedule near as much this year.
How To Draft Carr
12-Team PPR ADP (FF Calculator)
My draft strategy, which I recommend in this case, is to stock up on the RB/WR talent being avoided early in drafts and grab Carr in that round-9 spot as your QB. There are guys I like being taken after Carr which would certainly suffice given the value you will be getting at other positions, but the ceiling Carr has is more appealing for me than them.