Round 1 Decisions:
DeAndre Hopkins or AJ Green
- I'm taking AJ Green all day in this scenario and it has mostly to do with the volume I think Green will see compared to Hopkins. I believe Hopkins will see more of the second half of the season workload which warranted him around 160 targets as opposed to his 192.
David Johnson or Todd Gurley
- David Johnson is my #1 ranked running back. His skill set and involvement in the passing game separates him from Gurley. Gurley was on pace last season for only 27 catches and if that doesn't improve he will have to score close to 20 TD's to make up for the lost production. His pace of 1,700 yards and 13 TD's last year would barely get him to 280 PPR fantasy points. With the admiration the Rams have for Benny Cunningham I don't see Gurley getting enough love in the passing game to warrant a pick over David Johnson.
Round 2 Decisions:
Jordy Nelson or Brandon Marshall
- This is tough for me, but I'm leaning towards Marshall this year. I like the volume Marshall saw with Fitzpatrick and don't expect much to change. Jordy's year off is the tie-breaker for me here. I fell that Marshall is as safe a high-end WR pick as there is and with such a high pick I prefer taking a player who's floor is so high.
Mike Evans or Brandin Cooks or Alshon Jeffery or Amari Cooper
- Mike Evans is my fantasy darling this year and I expect him to make a DeAndre Hopkins type leap in year three. The chemistry with Winston being able to work together for an entire offseason is huge for me. 12 TD's in his rookie year and only 3 last year. 148 targets in 14 games last year is only going to increase. So far he has caught 2 TD's in 2 pre-season games and had a line of 5-115-1 this past week against Cleveland. Vincent Jackson does not worry me in the least bit. A 33 yr old one dimension WR coming off an injury plagued season.
- Alshon Jefffery would be my next choice here. The incentive to stay on the field this year coupled with his consistent dominant target share with Cutler is enough to feel good about a near full season out of Alshon.
- Between Cooks and Cooper I am leaning towards Amari Cooper. I am not excited about the volatility with Cooks between his home and road splits along with the other weapons in that Saints offense this year. Cooper was electric last year before that foot injury slowed him down. Again, the same as Evans and Winston, being able to work a full offseason with Carr and that offensive personnel will prove valuable in 2016.
Round 3 Decisions:
TY Hilton or Sammy Watkins or Demaryius Thomas
- This is the toughest decision of the bunch for me right now because I have these guys back to back to back in my rankings. Ultimately I am betting on Sammy Watkins upside playing a full year with Tyrod Taylor. His final 9 games of the season fully healthy was remarkable. Almost 90 catches - 1,600 yards - 12 TD's. This would be a fairly normal year for Demaryius, but the QB play there has limited that touchdown upside for me. I think Demaryius has an awesome year and is well worth the 3rd round ADP, but Watkins has a safer ceiling for me. I am not worried about his foot injury after watching him catch TD's in training camp so far.
- TY Hilton comes in third place for me in this group simply because I am very high on Donte Moncrief this year. I don't think there is enough to go around to push Hilton above either of these other two players, although I do expect Hilton to have a very nice year. 80 catches 1,300 yards and 8 TD's.
Round 4 Decisions:
Latavius Murray or CJ Anderson
- Murray is someone I think will have the same workload as last year, but be much more efficient. He finished as the 10th best running back in 2015 and really did not do much with his touches. They upgraded the offensive line tremendously and pro football focus has ranked them as the #2 offensive line in football this year. A very dynamic passing offense will allow Murray to see the minimum in the box. I look for him to be a bona-fide breakout player this year.
DeMarco Murray or Jeremy Langford or Carlos Hyde
- This is tough for me because I have been hoping to get 2 of these guys in that 4th/5th round. The thing for with Langford is I trust his workload more than either of the other guys. Hyde is close, but the 3rd down role I think will go to Shaun Draughn. The 49ers made it a point to re-sign him and we saw how Chip Kelly used Murray and Mathews last year. Hyde has also caught less passes than games played in his career (including college) and I don't see why we would expect that to change now. Langford in his 3 starts for the Bears last year scored 4 touchdowns and averaged 21.3 touches per game.
- DeMarco has a chance to have a nice season this year, but the way that Derrick Henry is running the ball I don't know if I can count on Murray to get the workload he would need to outscore Dion in PPR leagues. To be fair, Murray is running the ball very well and the Tennessee offensive line looks great. My concern, other than Henry, is the passing game not being a threat at all and the defensive being able to focus on the running game. These concerns are what shy me away from taking Murray, but they aren't swaying me enough not to take him at all. I expect a nice season out of him.
There are certainly more decisions the draft brings us, but for now these have been the decisions I am faced with early in drafts this year.