RB Sleepers: August 11th edition

With the second installment of this sleeper piece we are just going to focus on 2016, as opposed to comparing the players to their 2015 counterparts.  Again, Sleepers to me are those players you draft that will outplay their value.  It is not necessarily a player you have to draft after round 10.  I'll always say the draft won't make or break your season, but finding these values will certainly put you in the driver's seat during the tumultuous regular season of fantasy football.



ADP (average draft position) is changing everyday so in turn, sleepers are changing everyday.  For this next round of sleepers I want to highlight some players that I think will help you make decisions on other guys you are targeting.  For instance, if you get on board with some of these values it may help your first and second round choices.  For me, I have targeted some mid to late round RB's that I think have stand-alone value in their respective backfields (Charles Sims - Gio Bernard - TJ Yeldon) not to mention the potential if the 'starter' goes down.  With this information it makes it easier for me to grab high-end WR talent in the first few rounds.  The ADP data is from 12-team PPR drafts on fantasy football calculator:

Running Back	2016 ADP	Positional Rank
Lamar Miller	1.11	4th RB
Devonta Freeman	2.08	8th RB
Dion Lewis	4.07	17th RB
Ryan Mathews	6.04	26th RB
Charles Sims	8.06	36th RB
Theo Riddick	8.11	38th RB
TJ Yeldon	9.02	40th RB
Bilal Powell	9.08	41st RB
Jerick McKinnon	12.05	49th RB

A few highlights on some of these guys:

• Lamar Miller is one of my favorite players in 2016.  I could go into some stats here, but just go read my Lamar Miller piece from June and you'll see the potential he has in this Bill O' Brien run offense in Houston.  An offense that has led the league in RB touches over the past two seasons.  A call him a sleeper because if you are someone who values RB's in your first round than grabbing Lamar at the end of round one gives you the potential number one guy at the position.  If you are picking anywhere from the 9-12 spot it also allows you the chance of grabbing a top notch WR and potentially getting Miller with your second pick.  Love this.
• Devonta Freeman - I have been off Freeman for most of the offseason, but his prowess in the redzone and his ability to catch the football will keep him as a high end fantasy running back so long as he's healthy.  The price I have to pay for Freeman is slowly decreasing which makes him a value for me at the end of the second round.  We've obviously seen the potential in 2015.
• Dion Lewis has yet to practice for New England and we can see it in his ADP.  This is a guy who was on pace to finish as a top-3 running back last season.  With Lewis and Edelman both healthy last year, Brady was on pace for a 5,400 / 44TD season.  A dynamic back whose only concern is health.  A valid concern, but again, it is priced into his ADP.  If there was no concern he would be a second round pick.
• Ryan Mathews - The single most appealing thing about Mathews right now is how late he is going in drafts.  You have the potential to get the unquestioned starter in a Doug Pederson offense half-way through the sixth round.  Pederson has been a part of the offenses that include: Brian Westbrook, Lesean McCoy and Jamaal Charles.  Did they make him look better or did Pederson put those guys in positions for success.  I tend to lean towards the latter given what Pederson was able to do with Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West last season when Charles went down.  He turned those RB's into fantasy darlings.  
• Theo Riddick - This is a guy who caught 80 passes last year who plays in an offense that some believe may lead the league in pass attempts in 2016.  The only certainty at the RB position for Detroit at the moment is Theo Riddick.  Ameer Abdullah is likely to be the lead back, but his coming off of shoulder surgery this offseason and didn't do enough to impress fantasy owners in 2015.  
• TJ Yeldon - I am a firm believer that Yeldon provides the same value to Jacksonville that Giovani Bernard provides to the Bengals.  Again, I have written an article that you can refer to that shows Gio's 3-yr average stats in the Bengals offense compared to what Yeldon's new role may provide in Jacksonville.  They are not too different coupled with the fact that Yeldon has a better chance to recover the lead back role given that Chris Ivory is 29 years old.  But the biggest point is that he is 4 rounds cheaper than Gio.
• Bilal Powell - Perhaps my favorite late round RB to grab so far this offseason.  Finishing the season as the go-to guy in the Jets backfield (weeks 11-16) he put himself on a pace for 85 receptions, nearly 1,300 yards and 8 TD's.  He is comfortable in the system and was paid nearly the same amount of money Matt Forte was paid.  Forte showed signs of age last year, appearing in only 13 games and the Jets have shown they value brining Powell back to that offense as much as getting Forte.