Before I break down this scenario I want to go on the record saying I absolutely want Gronk on my team, but using my first round pick on him is not the price I'd pay. If I can acquire him during the season or own him somehow in a dynasty/keeper league I would jump at that opportunity. The best way to describe my feelings for Gronk's situation is to go back and look at what he's done at the TE position and compare that to the expected value he carries as a first round pick.
|
Season
|
G
|
Tar
|
Rec
|
Yds
|
TD
|
FPTS
|
|
2015 |
15
|
120
|
72
|
1,176
|
11
|
255.6
|
|
2014 |
15
|
131
|
82
|
1,124
|
12
|
266.4
|
|
2013 |
7
|
67
|
39
|
592
|
4
|
122.2
|
|
2012 |
11
|
79
|
55
|
790
|
11
|
198
|
|
2011 |
16
|
124
|
90
|
1,327
|
17
|
330.9
|
|
2010 |
16
|
59
|
42
|
546
|
10
|
154.6
|
2012 and 2013 were injury shortened seasons, but in all fairness, the pace Gronk was on was pretty damn good. A 16-game pace of 279 points (2013) and 288 points (2012). Clearly his 2011 season has been the benchmark for Gronkowski being a first round pick. Based on production he has not lived up to this mark in any season since.
The actual strategy for Gronk in the first round isn't all about his actual points scored. It has a lot to do with positional separation from the next best tight ends in the league. That being said let's look at what other tight ends have done in these years since 2011.
|
|
2015
|
FPTS
|
|
1
|
Rob Gronkowski |
255.6
|
|
2
|
Jordan Reed |
244.2
|
|
3
|
Delanie Walker |
242.4
|
|
|
2014
|
FPTS
|
|
1
|
Rob Gronkowski |
266.4
|
|
2
|
Jimmy Graham |
229.9
|
|
3
|
Antonio Gates |
223.1
|
|
|
2013
|
FPTS
|
|
1
|
Jimmy Graham |
303.5
|
|
2
|
Julius Thomas |
215.8
|
|
3
|
Tony Gonzalez |
214.7
|
|
*
|
Gronk’s Pace |
279
|
|
|
2012
|
FPTS
|
|
1
|
Jimmy Graham |
237.2
|
|
2
|
Tony Gonzalez |
234
|
|
3
|
Jason Witten |
231.9
|
|
*
|
Gronk’s Pace |
288
|
- 2015 - Gronk outscores the next best tight end by 11.4 points (0.71 pts/game)
- 2014 - Gronk outscores the next best tight end by 36.5 points (2.28 pts/game)
- 2013 - Gronk would have finished in 2nd place if he kept the pace he was on
- 2012 - Gronk would have outscored the next best tight end by 41.8 (2.6 pts/game)
These separation numbers do not strike me as someone who HAS to be drafted so much further ahead of the other tight ends. I will say there is a consistency the past two seasons that puts Gronk as the only TE to repeat being in the top-3 and that is a safe play at the position. Is this worth a first round pick?
As for production alone, Gronk has finished as a top-12 overall player just that one time in his career (2011). Yet again, he stays strong with a top-12 ADP. I am as big a fan as it gets when it comes to watching and rooting for Gronk to wrap his mitts around the ball in the end zone and slam the pigskin into the paint in celebration, but as for my fantasy football draft I will be taking high end wide receivers and running backs at the end of my first and beginning of my second round.