What to do with Dez, Demaryius and Hopkins

So as we wind down towards the end of the pre-season let's look at one topic that will be of interest to most fantasy owners... what to do with Dez, Demaryius and Hopkins.  These are three of the most elite wide receivers in the game today and yet they are riddled with question marks.  Dez now has to rely on rookie QB Dak Prescott (who he caught 2 TD's from during the pre-season).  Demaryius goes from hall of famer Peyton Manning to 7th round flier Trevor Simien.  And Hopkins is working with first time QB in Houston Brock Osweiler.  Let's just break it down and take it from there.


Dez Bryant
Bryant is currently sitting with an ADP of 2.02, the 7th WR off the board, right behind Allen Robinson and right in front of Brandon Marshall.  That seems to be the decision people have in drafts, whether to grab Dez there or go with the younger stud in Robinson or event he older stud in Brandon Marshall.

The thing about Dez is we have seen his ceiling in this Dallas offense.  Three years (2012-2014) he played 16 games and was extremely efficient and dominant:

Season	G	Yds/Rec	Catch %	Tar	Rec	Yds	TD	FPTS
2012	16	15.0	67%	138	92	1,382	12	297.7
2013	16	13.3	58%	160	93	1,233	13	292.4
2014	16	15.0	65%	136	88	1,320	16	316

Now I ask you, given the new QB situation for Dez Bryant, do you think he will repeat these numbers?  16 touchdowns?  I don't think it's responsible to expect 16 TD's..  But if you want to assume he catches 12 that's fine, but then the next question is: do you want to take this chance over players like Allen Robinson and Brandon Marshall who are in the same exact scenarios as they were in 2015 with a year more of chemistry with their offense and quarterback?  

If you're giving Dez one of these seasons with Prescott (and that's a reach) it is still under 300 PPR fantasy points.  Both Robinson and Marshall scored more than that last season and Marshall has scored over 300 fantasy points in three of his last four seasons.  It jut doesn't make sense for me to take Dez ahead of those guys in drafts and if you have a chance to trade Dez for either one of those at this point, I would recommend you do so.

Demaryius Thomas

This is an intriguing situation for me because Demaryius has an ADP of 3.06, the 18th WR off the board.  This is simply one of my favorite values in all drafts.  Let's just look at the QB's from last year in Denver:

Season	G	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Fpts/game
2015 Denver QB’s	16	606	4,216	19	23	15.5

These are pretty miserable stats and still Demaryius had: 105 receptions - 1,304 yards - 6 TD's.

The question now becomes, what do we expect him to do with this new young QB?  Well my answer is that it can't get much worse than this.  This stat line for QB's ranked 29th in fantasy points per game.  There were only 3 worse teams last year.  In non-Manning games in 2015 Demaryius actually saw an increase in TD's (was on a pace for 10) and a decrease in receptions.  This decrease stemmed from a 49% catch rate in those games.  Thomas has hovered around 60% for his career and that includes time with Tim Tebow so the 49% was obviously an outlier.  If he comes even close to his normal 60% this season we are looking at another Demaryius type season we are used to seeing. 

NOW... the main point when talking about Demaryius is that if you break down these numbers there is much optimism to expect good things and you are getting him in the 3rd round!!  That's the point.  The risk is already priced into his ADP and all you have left is upside.  TAKE HIM!

DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins is an amazing talent and I would love for him to be on my team.  The problem I have is with his usage last year.  For the season he had 192 targets and 111 receptions.  But we saw the tale of two teams in Houston last year.  Their defense didn't show up until about midway through the season and from that point on (final 8 games including playoffs) Hopkins was targeted far less.  In fact he put himself on a pace for only 160 targets in a season and 8 touchdowns.  Houston adding Lamar Miller and bringing back their same defense makes me think we will see numbers closer to this second half rather than the near 200 targets he saw over the year last year.  Still an amazing player, but coming off the board too early for me.  This is my order for WR's in the first round:

	Player
1	Antonio Brown
2	Odell Beckham Jr.
3	Julio Jones
4	AJ Green
5	Mike Evans
6	Allen Robinson
7	Brandon Marshall
8	DeAndre Hopkins

Mike Evans is my fantasy darling this year and you can read about it in my June article about him.  What we've seen from him in the pre-season is only a sign of things to come.  Marshall and ARob, like I mentioned earlier, are in the same situations they were last year and that makes me more comfortable than the change we may see from Hopkins.