Lamar Miller #1?

Can Lamar Miller be the top scoring fantasy RB this season?

Stay with me on this one folks.  Anyone who has had Lamar Miller on their fantasy team has constantly dealt with the feeling of him being underutilized in Miami.  Miller himself expressed his interest in signing with a team that would use him as a workhorse back during the free agency period this offseason.  With that said I looked a bit into the usage he had in Miami versus the usage some workhorse RB's have had the past few seasons and coupled it all with what Bill O' Brien has done with his RB's in Houston the past few years.  The outcome is pretty exciting for what Lamar Miller's potential is this season.

• Last season Miller saw 65% of Miami's RB touches (67% of the rush attempts & 58% of the receptions.
• Bill O' Brien in his two seasons with Houston has averaged the most RB touches in the league with 522 (73 RB receptions and 449 rushing attempts)
• Miller has averaged 5.0 yards per touch the past 3 seasons.
• If Miller is used with the same frequency he was in Miami (which isn't good) and with Houston's RB touches he would account for:

300 attempts / 42 receptions / 1,710 yards / 10 TD = 273 points (2nd in 2015)

Now, looking at 5 of the more notable workhorse RB's the past two seasons, their usage in the offense was obviously quite a bit more.  The average of the 5 RB's accounts for 74.8% of the team's touches.

1. Devonta Freeman in 2015 accounted for 71% of the RB touches.
2. Adrian Peterson in 2015 accounted for 73% of the RB touches.
3. Le'Veon Bell in 2014 accounted for 78% of the RB touches.
4. Marshawn Lynch in 2014 accounted for 71% of the RB touches.
5. DeMarco Murray in 2014 accounted for 81% of the RB touches.

Nothing has lead us to believe that Bill O' Brien will not use Lamar Miller in this fashion.  If he can handle this kind of workload remains to be seen, but Miller's injury history is non existent.  When simply putting together a projection of his floor and ceiling for 2016 it seems very reasonable that his floor is the previous scenario with Miami's usage in Houston's offense and his ceiling is giving Miller 75% of Houston's RB averaged workload over the past 2 seasons which is:

337 attempts / 55 receptions / 1,960 yards / 10 TD = 311 points

I am aware that 337 attempts is high, but in the same respect I think 10 TD's is too low.  Miller scored 10 TD's in the minimal usage Miami allocated to him last year.  It's ultimately 392 touches which is quite high, but is also not unheard of.  Point is that even if you want to fudge with the numbers and give a lower end 'workhorse' rushing attempt total you will still see Miller scoring at a top 3 pace.

I hope you enjoyed my day quantifying a situation that has yet to take place.  Enjoy.