The Arizona offense was fully in tact for the final 7 games of the season (week 13-playoffs). It seems very logical to me to break down each WR's usage during this period and then project it over 16 games to get an idea what it may look like during the 2016 season.
7 Games (week 13 - playoffs)
Player
|
G
|
Yds/Rec
|
Catch %
|
Tar
|
Rec
|
Yds
|
TD
|
FPTS
|
| Larry Fitzgerald |
7
|
11.3
|
72%
|
53
|
38
|
429
|
3
|
*
|
| Michael Floyd |
7
|
15.5
|
53%
|
56
|
30
|
466
|
3
|
*
|
| John Brown |
7
|
14.9
|
50%
|
54
|
27
|
404
|
3
|
*
|
What jumps out to me right away is that Larry Fitzgerald caught 72% of his passes during this time and he actually caught 75% of his passes for the entire season (109 of 146). His highest catch rate in his career before this was 63% in 2009. This screams immediate regression. My projections for all 3 of these WR's are based on this 7 game usage and finding a realistic catch % and yds/rec based on their history.
2016 Projections:
Player
|
G
|
Yds/Rec
|
Catch %
|
Tar
|
Rec
|
Yds
|
TD
|
FPTS
|
| Michael Floyd |
16
|
15.5
|
59%
|
128
|
75
|
1,192
|
10
|
254.2
|
| John Brown |
16
|
15.1
|
57%
|
123
|
70
|
1,060
|
8
|
224
|
| Larry Fitzgerald |
16
|
11.3
|
62%
|
121
|
75
|
847
|
7
|
201.7
|
Given these projections it is always good to note which guys you think have extreme upside. Michael Floyd and John Brown both have that. Their ability to stretch the field allows for a potential breakout at any time. Larry Fitzgerald is the model of what you want on your team at any position, but I can't go into a draft expecting him to catch footballs at that rate again.