Episode 16: Week 2 Match-ups and info

Saturday, June 11, 2016

Who is Dion Lewis?

Dion Lewis is a 25 year old fifth round draft pick coming out of The University of Pittsburgh.  Perhaps an unknown in the NFL for his first two seasons Lewis burst onto the scene last year with the New England Patriots.  So much so that they rewarded him during the early part of the season with a 2 year contract extension.  Odds are if you are reading this you know what Dion Lewis is capable of.  The numbers he was accumulating during the first nine weeks of the season were worthy of a top 3 PPR finish.


Dealing with Dion's projection is quite simple.  You either think he will get hurt or you don't.  The Tom Brady 4 game suspension doesn't affect Lewis in my opinion simply because a QB that does not have much time in the NFL (Jimmy Garoppolo) should lean heavily on his TE and RB in check down targets.  Let's look at what Lewis actually did in 2015:

Dion Lewis
Season
G
Att
Tar
Rec
Yards
TD
yds/touch
FPTS
2015
7
49
50
36
622
4
7.3
120.2

16
112
114
82
1,421
9
7.3
278.1

His 16 game pace is not unrealistic for a running back with Lewis' skill set in this New England offense.  The opportunity is there for the taking.  Projecting Lewis for 2016:

2016 - Projection
Projection
G
Att
Tar
Rec
Yards
TD
yds/touch
FPTS
2016
16
110
102
72
1,328
9
7.3
258.8

What I like about Lewis and projecting him for 16 games is that depending on my bench situation I can acquire James White and know that I may not get the efficiency that Lewis produces, but I will still have a running back getting the targets coming out of that backfield.

As of now his ADP (average draft position) is 4.03 which is the 16th running back off the board.  I have Lewis as the 7th best RB and you will not have to draft him anywhere near that value.  He is a guy I am heavily targeting in drafts that I want to go WR heavy with (or for those taking Gronkowski in the 1st round).  Absolutely love this value.


     

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