Value pick - Yeldon over Gio

Listening to people in the industry talk about Giovani Bernard compared to TJ Yeldon is on the same level as comparing Robert DeNiro to Keanu Reeves and I don't get it.  I don't understand why people are treating Yeldon as if he has Leprosy.


Breaking down Yeldon's rookie season in comparison to what Gio does with his role on the Bengals you really see these guys are not too different.  And the point of this is to show that you can wait 4 rounds to take Yeldon in the 9th round instead of bucking up and having to take Gio in the 5th round.  Their current ADP's are 9.01 and 5.11.  I can't see why you wouldn't wait.

Yeldon had the starting gig for Jacksonville last season, but the addition of Chris Ivory brings that in to question this season.  That part is irrelevant when comparing him to Gio since Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati warrants 220+ rushing attempts as the power back.  So let's breakdown Yeldon's usage in a 16 games season with the idea that Ivory will seriously cut into his rushing attempts.

TJ Yeldon

Season	G	Att	Tar	Rec	Yards	TD	yds/touch	FPTS
2015	12	182	46	36	1,019	3	4.7	155.9
16 gm/pace	16	242	61	48	1,358	4	4.7	207.8

Giovani Bernard

Season	G	Att	Tar	Rec	Yards	TD	yds/touch	FPTS
2015	16	154	66	49	1,202	2	5.9	181.2
3 yr avg	15	164	65	49	1,146	4	5.3	197.2

Surely we don't expect Yeldon to get 242 rushing attempts, but the point of comparing him to the Gio role is the receiving game with the addition of rush attempts being icing on the cake.  Use the 182 carries Yeldon had over twelve weeks and thats more realistic for a season if he stays in the Gio role. Yeldon's 12-week totals last year are very very similar to what Gio has averaged over the past three seasons.  We are talking about the same guy people.

Here is what I see heading into 2016:

• Yeldon will be more comfortable in the offense in year two and his yds/touch has a chance to increase.
• Jacksonville has a similar if not better offense than Cincinnati and a worse defense which means Yeldon in a 'Gio role' would be on the field more often.
•  Yeldon has already flirted with the production of Gio so this isn't even a stretch in hopes that he can find extra work to do so.
• Yeldon has more of the upside of taking over the backfield for his team.  They are in very similar situations.  Main difference is that Ivory has had over 200 rushing attempts once in his career and Jeremy Hill has done it twice in two years.  Ivory is also 5 years older than Jeremy Hill so if anyone was going to bet who will break down first the answer is fairly obvious. 

What it comes down to is this... Do you think TJ Yeldon can do what Gio has done for 3 years:

G	Att	Tar	Rec	Yards	TD	yds/touch	FPTS
15	164	65	49	1,146	5.6	5.3	197.2

The numbers show this is more than attainable for TJ and if you think he can do this or even come close I highly recommend passing on Bernard in the 5th round and picking up Yeldon in the 9th.  Because if Yeldon isn't Robert DeNiro, he's not far from being Al Pacino.