Episode 16: Week 2 Match-ups and info

Monday, June 13, 2016

WR Sleepers (1)

I want to look at three wide receivers that will most likely be overlooked headed into the fantasy season this year.  Later round picks that may very well be difference makers on a week to week basis.  Everyone tries to find those values in the later rounds of drafts that ultimately end up winning your team weeks and championships.  I've found 3 so far that I think will do just that.


1.  Donte Moncrief
Moncrief started off hot last year scoring a TD in each of his first 3 games and then Andrew Luck went down.  The rest of the season was nothing more than a band aid for the Colts offense, but if you happened to watch what Moncrief was doing while Luck was on the field there is plenty of excitement for 2016.  I have Moncrief ranked 24th among WR's and his ADP is the #32 WR.

Season
G
Yds/Rec
Catch %
Tar
Rec
Yds
TD
FPTS
2015
16
11.5
61%
105
64
733
6
109.3
7 games w/Luck
7
10.9
59%
54
32
351
5
*
16 gm/pace w/Luck
16
10.9
59%
123
73
802
11
219
2016 projection
16
11.5
60%
123
74
848
10
218.8



2. Torrey Smith












Believe me when I say that Torrey Smith has been dead to me in fantasy football the past few years.  I can't help but wonder if he can return to useful in this Chip Kelly offense that ran 150 more plays than the 49ers did in 2015.  Somebody has to be the benefactor of the passes thrown for San Fran this year and Torrey Smith seems the most likely candidate.  Here are a few things that stand out to me.
  • Chip Kelly's #1 WR the past two seasons has seen 128 & 144 targets.
  • In 2013, Torrey Smith saw 139 targets in a Baltimore offense that ran 1,042 total plays (Chip Kelly ran 1,065 plays in 2015).
  • Blaine Gabbert started 8 games at QB for the 49ers last season and was surprisingly fantasy friendly.  He scored 170.1 fantasy points in that span which was on pace to finish nearly 15th overall at the QB position (49 points away from the top 10).
I have Smith ranked 35th among WR's and his ADP is the #49 WR.

Season
G
Yds/Rec
Catch %
Tar
Rec
Yds
TD
FPTS
2013 w/Balt
16
17.4
47%
139
65
1,128
4
201.8
2016 projection
16
17.0
50%
135
67
1,139
7
222.9


3. Markus Wheaton













I would like to preface this section with saying I don't like to imagine anyone other than Antonio Brown catching passes for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  That being said, it seems clear to me that Wheaton has a chance to thrive in an offense (minus Martavis Bryant) that is projected to be one of the most explosive in the league.  It is very simple to me when you look at what Wheaton did the final 8 games of the season (weeks 12-playoffs) to see the possibilities for 2016.  The numbers he posted are WITH Martavis Bryant on the field.  Now that he is gone for the season there is extra production available to spread around with most of it going to Wheaton and newly acquired tight end Ladarius Green.  I have Wheaton ranked 33rd among WR's and his ADP is the #40 WR.

Season
G
Yds/Rec
Catch %
Tar
Rec
Yds
TD
FPTS
2015
16
17.0
55%
79
44
749
5
104.9
final 8 games
8
15.1
58%
60
35
529
4
*
16 game pace
16
15.1
58%
120
70
1,058
8
223.8
2016 projection
16
15.1
58%
120
70
1,058
7
217.8


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