Mike Evans Love Story

Every year I seem to be infatuated with a player.  Last year it was Travis Kelce and after week 1 it sure seemed like our story would have a happy ending.  It's 2016 and there's romance in the air.  Mike Evans is my fantasy crush and I am proud to admit it.

What has excited me about Evans' offseason so far is that there has been minimal news.  With social media running laps around players and their transgressions it has been nice to see Evans absent from that list.  What seemingly isn't a big deal is the news of Evans and his QB Jameis Winston spending "countless time" together this offseason running routes and watching game film.  Some in the athletic world may refer to this as "eye wash" but others like myself see it as two young athletes gaining a rapport with each other.  It is human nature to have a comfort level with someone you spend so much time working with so I really see this as a major positive for Evans 2016 fantasy outlook.  The last offseason tidbit that I was hoping to see was Evans taking responsibility for his 'sophomore slump.'  Instead of making excuses and pointing out that he improved in receptions and yards, he talked numerous times about his disappointment in his drops and lack of consistency in 2015.  All this is news to pay attention to for those craving anything football in May and June, but it is important nonetheless.  As for the numbers Evans has produced in his first two years we have:

Mike Evans

Season	G	Yds/Rec	Catch %	Tar	Rec	Yds	TD	FPTS
2014	15	15.5	55%	123	68	1.051	12	245.1
2015	14	16.3	51%	145	74	1,208	3	210.8

Fully healthy this offseason and this rapport that we've already touched on, I see Evans being able to play a full 16 game season and increase his catch %.  His final 8 games of 2015 showed much improvement and this is what I am ultimately projecting Evans to build upon:

2015 Final 8 Games: (week 10-17)

Final 8	G	Yds/Rec	Catch %	Tar	Rec	Yds	TD	FPTS
2015	8	16.0	56%	75	42	670	2	*
	16	16.0	56%	150	84	1,340	4	242

Given his improvement with catch %, his effort in gaining a better connection with his QB, lack of competition at the WR corps (increased targets) and his bizarre regression in TD's in his 2nd year I am fully ready to project Evans into fantasy stardom.

Projection

Projection	G	Yds/Rec	Catch %	Tar	Rec	Yds	TD	FPTS
2016	16	16.0	56%	175	98	1,568	12	326.8

Statistics can only take you so far when putting together your fantasy rankings each season.  Numbers can be skewed in almost any way.  I will write a piece on some of the ranking styles I have seen and heard about in the fantasy industry, but for me I like the the numbers to give me a baseline on what may or may not be 'realistic' for a player in his offensive scheme.  After that a lot goes in to what you see each week and your overall instincts.  I don't have any statistical analysis to prove to anyone that Mike Evans will see 175 targets this season.  That part of it is what separates everyone's rankings and gives some an edge on draft day.  That beings said, I am aware of my love bias towards Mike Evans and I hope he's willing to go the distance with me.