Adrian Peterson: Player Profile

The more I looked into Adrian Peterson's career the more I realized he is a Hall of Fame running back, but at the same time I realized just how 'okay' he is in PPR fantasy leagues compared to the expectations we, as drafters, have of him.  In a fantasy landscape shifting towards wide receivers holding more value in the first round we are constantly asking ourselves which running backs deserve to come off the board first.  Average draft position over the past seven years shows Peterson as the first or second choice in four of them, but does he warrant that? I really don't think so.


Since 2010, Peterson's average draft position in a PPR league has been:

• 2010 - 2nd RB taken
• 2011 - 1st RB taken
• 2012 - NA (coming off major knee surgery)
• 2013 - 1st RB taken
• 2014 - 5th RB taken
• 2015 - 1st RB taken

This next chart shows the top 3 running back scorers in each year since Peterson was drafted in 2007 compared to the points Peterson scored in that season.  The results don't correlate with the admiration we have for Peterson in these drafts.  His production rarely add up to his ADP slot:

2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
316.9	370.5	378.1	345.4	368.8	391.8	390.9	305.9	370.4
260.7	351.7	336.3	311.6	328.4	297.2	324.1	305.5	362.9
244.1	342.6	330.7	300.8	305	294.4	323.5	278.9	274.5
Peterson:
260.7	11.3	232.7	345.4	207.2	275.9	321.5	261.2	251.9

• In the 9 years AP has been in the league he has scored enough points to crack the top 3 scorers just twice.  This includes last season where his point total would not have cracked the top-5 in most years.
• He has caught 40+ passes only twice in his career.
• The record breaking year everyone remembers when Peterson rushed for 2,000+ yards would have made him the #1 scoring RB in a PPR league 3 of the last 16 years (2015, 2012 & 2008).

I completely respect Peterson's football capabilities and as I said before I consider him a no doubt Hall of Fame running back, but as far as drafting for a PPR league I cannot get on board with drafting him in the first round.  The lack of action in the pass game lowers his ceiling tremendously and passing on other RB's or more importantly some of the WR's available where AP is going is a mistake.

My top 7 running backs look like this:

	Player	FPTS
1	David Johnson	337.2
2	Le’Veon Bell **Susp	326.2
3	Lamar Miller	305.5
4	Jamaal Charles	283.4
5	Todd Gurley	282.6
6	Ezekiel Elliot	280
7	Adrian Peterson	273.7

-----> In a world of dual backfields I still love AP's workload to give me a consistent floor.  But as of now his ADP is 1.08 and to think of passing on these guys to have AP doesn't feel to me like I am maximizing my opportunity in the draft room:

1. Dez Bryant
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Lamar Miller
4. Jordy Nelson
5. Rob Gronkowski
6. Allen Robinson
7. Alshon Jeffery
8. Brandon Marshall
9. Keenan Allen
10. Mike Evans
11. Le'Veon Bell

** ADP data comes from Fantasy Football Calculator **