Using FF Calculator (PPR) I'll highlight each round and give my opinion on best and worst values for each round. I won't go in depth on the why, but give just enough to scratch the surface of my reasons.
ADP: Round 1
1
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2
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3
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4
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5
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6
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7
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8
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9
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10
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11
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12
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Antonio Brown
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Julio Jones
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Odell Beckham
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Todd Gurley
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DeAndre Hopkins
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David Johnson
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AJ Green
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Adrian Peterson
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Dez Bryant
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Ezekiel Elliot
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Jordy Nelson
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Lamar Miller
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Best Value:
- Lamar Miller - See my Lamar Miller article and it explains it all.
Worst Value:
- Todd Gurley - I don't see his pass catching role improving enough to be the #1 scoring RB in a PPR league. His pace last year was for 297 attempts / 1,709 yds / 13 TD's, but his reception total would have been 27. This is a pretty amazing season and it would have warranted Gurley 275.9 points which would have barely sniffed the top 5 in PPR leagues over the past decade.
- Adrian Peterson - Similar to the knock on Gurley in a PPR league Peterson will struggle to be successful in the passing game. An obvious stud in 'real' football, but has cracked the top 3 in a PPR league only twice in his career.
ADP: Round 2
13
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14
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15
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16
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17
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18
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19
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20
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21
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22
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23
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24
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Le’Veon Bell
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Rob Gronk
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Allen Robinson
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Keenan Allen
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Jamaal Charles
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Alshon Jeffery
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Mike Evans
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Devonta Freeman
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Amari Cooper
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Brandin Cooks
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Brandon Marshall
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Mark Ingram
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Best Value:
- Mike Evans - My Mike Evans love story article will put his value in perspective for you. Long story short, combing his potential in his first two seasons for a year three explosion seems inevitable.
- Le'Veon Bell - A top 3 overall fantasy player and nearly unanimous top scoring running back. Obviously the four game suspension is the reason for this ADP, but I think obtaining replacement value during the suspension is very doable. You don't have to deal with bye weeks in your decision and still have the opportunity to get Pittsburgh's number one RB in DeAngelo Williams around the sixth round. The Steelers #1 RB produced 353.6 fantasy points last season as a whole.
Worst Value:
- Mark Ingram - Ingram hasn't played more than 13 games since 2012. His ceiling is great especially because of his work in the passing game, but in the second round I can't get behind it with players like Dion Lewis, Doug Martin and Eddie Lacy going a full round later.
ADP: Round 3
25
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26
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27
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28
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29
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30
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31
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32
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33
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34
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35
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36
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Eddie Lacy
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Jarvis Landry
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TY Hilton
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LeSean McCoy
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Demary Thomas
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Doug Martin
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Julian Edelman
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Randall Cobb
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Sammy Watkins
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Kelvin Benjamin
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Golden Tate
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Matt Forte
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Best Value:
- Sammy Watkins - I understand his foot injury is a concern, but given the time table between the surgery and week one I feel confident he will be ready. The point is this guy was on pace to be a top-6 wide receiver to finish the season last year and to be the 20th WR drafted is a complete steal for me.
Worst Value:
- Julian Edelman - He has played a full season one time in his career and in that year he finished as the #14 WR. Tom Brady missing four games coupled with Edelman's ability to play sixteen games, or lack-there-of and I can't make sense of him being the #18 wide receiver off the board.
- Matt Forte - I am on the Bilal Powell train. Not many people realize the Jets signed Powell for nearly the same amount of money they signed Forte for. Powell finished the season on a pace to catch 85 balls for over 1,200 yards. He knows the offense. The idea of taking Forte in round 3 when you can get Powell in round 10 is mind-blowing to me. Picking up a wide receiver at this spot and grabbing Dion Lewis in the next round is a far better idea for my draft strategy.
ADP: Round 4
37
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38
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39
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40
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41
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42
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43
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44
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45
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46
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47
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48
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Thomas Rawls
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Aaron Rodgers
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Cam Newton
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Dion Lewis
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CJ Anderson
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Jeremy Maclin
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Jordan Reed
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Latavius Murray
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Doug Baldwin
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Carlos Hyde
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Donte Moncrief
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Greg Olsen
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Best Value:
- Dion Lewis - Simply put I have Lewis as my 7th ranked RB in PPR and he is coming off the board as the number 14th. The Brady suspension doesn't bother me given the routes and dump down situation a RB finds himself in. Health is the only concern when dealing with Lewis. He role in the Patriots offense is solidified and was stamped with a multi year deal during the season last year.
Worst Value:
- Greg Olsen - I am well aware that Greg Olsen in an excellent tight end. In fact, he is one of my favorites of all time. The truth is, however, that Olsen has never finished higher than 4th at the TE position. His ceiling is capped and to spend a fourth round pick (TE3) on a TE with that ceiling is pretty much the last thing I could ever recommend.
ADP: Round 5
49
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50
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51
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52
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53
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54
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55
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56
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57
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58
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59
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60
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DeMarco Murray
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Michael Floyd
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Danny Woodhead
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Duke Johnson
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Jeremy Langford
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Andrew Luck
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Jordan Matthews
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Matt Jones
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Larry Fitzgerald
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Allen Hurns
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Russell Wilson
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Ryan Mathews
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Best Value:
- Danny Woodhead - This is a guy who finished third and twelfth in PPR scoring the last two healthy years in San Diego. Ken Whisenhunt was the OC for the Chargers in 2013 and is returning this year to run the offense. Woodhead's role is solidified on that team and the points he scored in 2013 came while Ryan Mathews received 285 carries. Him being the 20th RB taken is undoubtedly a steal.
Worst Value:
- Larry Fitzgerald - I love Fitzy as much as anyone, but the one thing that stands out to me is his 75% catch rate last season. His career high coming into last year was 63%. He's been in the slot since 2013 in the Bruce Arians offense and with Michael Floyd and John Brown as the other options I can't possibly recommend taking Fitzgerald this high.