AJ Green: Player Profile

One of the most consistent WR's of the last four years is staring down the barrel of a potential monster season.  Marvin Jones is now in Detroit.  Mohamed Sanu finds himself in Atlanta and Tyler Eifert is expected to miss a handful of games with his ever lingering ankle injury from the Pro Bowl.  This leaves an excess of more than 150 targets to be spread around that passing game.


Enter sure handed (sarcastic) Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd and put yourself in Andy Dalton's cleats as you're dropping back... who are you going to look for?  Exactly.


AJ Green 2015 breakdown:

Season	G	Yds/Rec	Catch %	Tar	Rec	Yds	TD	FPTS
2015	16	15.1	65%	132	86	1,297	10	273.7
Final 8 games	8	16.6	60%	60	36	599	7	*
16 gm pace	16	16.6	60%	120	72	1,198	14	275.8

• Worth noting is Andy Dalton only played in 13 games last year.  Seems to explain the down tick in receptions for the second half of the season.

AJ Green's two best seasons:

Season	G	Yds/Rec	Catch %	Tar	Rec	Yds	TD	FPTS
2012	16	13.9	59%	164	97	1,350	11	299.8
2013	16	14.6	54%	180	98	1,426	11	306.6

• Logic says by this point in a player's career, without much changing, that we should expect his ceiling to only reach what he's done in these 2 years.  What jumps out at me is Green's catch % for these seasons compared to what it has been since.  Natural progression in working with the same QB every year should bump that up to what he had in 2015 (65%).
• He has scored 10 or more TD's in 3 of the last 4 years.

2016 Projection:

Season	G	Yds/Rec	Catch %	Tar	Rec	Yds	TD	FPTS
2016 Projection	16	15.8	62%	172	106	1,684	11	340.4

• Using the average target share from his two best seasons with a modest catch % from what he did last year we see a rise in Green's receptions and yards.  11 TD's is standard for Green so I actually think there is still room for a better year. 

Wide Receiver Rankings:

	Player	FPTS
1	Antonio Brown	404.6
2	Odell Beckham Jr.	367
3	Julio Jones	361.4
4	AJ Green	340.4
5	Mike Evans	320

Green's ADP is 1.07 right now which is the 5th WR off the board.  Unfortunately he doesn't have the value of being a steal in any sense, but without question a great pick in the back half of the first round.