RB Sleepers (July 30th)

Two things are constantly talked about throughout the fantasy football offseason: Who's going be your first round pick and who are some sleepers.  "Sleepers" is a word thrust into the ever changing lingo of the fantasy world and it also has an array of definitions.  For me it is simple, a sleeper is a player you pick that is going to out produce his value by a hefty amount.  For example, if you draft a guy as the #35 RB and he finishes the season as the #12 RB then you've got yourself a sleeper.  I put together a list of players drafted last year from the 6th round on that performed at sleeper status and compared them to players being drafted in 2016 that have the potential to produce at the same capacity.  I find that comparing players and their situation is the best way to find these guys.  I am just looking for a correlation between these ADP numbers and how guys outperformed them.


The chart is simple.  I took players from last year who had top-20 fantasy seasons and compared their ADP to players going in that range this year.  You may have a sleeper or two that you like this year and the point of this chart is to convince you to keep focus during these rounds because value goes through the roof the further along the draft goes.  You're paying less and less of a price for a commodity that has potential for a huge return.

2015 Player	2015 ADP	2015 Finish		2016 Comparison	2016 ADP
Danny Woodhead	6th rd / RB30	RB3		Jeremy Hill	6th rd / RB28
Giovani Bernard	7th rd / RB31	RB16		Ameer Abdullah	7th rd / RB29
-	-	-		Melvin Gordon	7th rd / RB32
Devonta Freeman	8th rd / RB40	RB1		TJ Yeldon	9th rd / RB39
-	-	-		Tevin Coleman	9th rd / RB40
Darren McFadden	8th rd / RB36	RB13		Charles Sims	8th rd / RB36
-	-	-		Theo Riddick	8th rd / RB38
David Johnson	10th rd / RB46	RB8		DeAndre Washington	11th rd / RB48
				Bilal Powell	10th rd / RB44

We've seen some of these guys have success in the past and there are certain situations they can find themselves in that seriously increase their volume.  Freeman goes down and now Tevin Coleman is in the exact scenario Freeman was in last year.  Jeremy Hill finds that gear he had as a rookie and now his 12 touchdowns are coupled with 1500 yards.  Theo Riddick caught 80 passes last year!  Bilal Powell was paid nearly as much money as Forte and has a year of experience in that Jets offense that gave him a pace for 85 catches and 1,200 yards.  Oh yeah, and Forte is already missing time in camp with a hamstring issue.  TJ Yeldon saw solid volume as a rookie and will find himself in the Gio Bernard role in Jacksonville with the chance of handling the full load in case Ivory goes down.  DeAndre Washington was just announced as the clear cut back behind Latavius Murray, who underwhelmed, on a team that seriously upgraded their offensive line.  

A very important aspect to these sleeper situations are that they hold stand alone value.  They are not strictly handcuffs.  Starting anyone of these players on a week to week basis has the potential to outperform your expectations of them.