Sammy Watkins: Player Profile

Here's a stat:  The Bills quarterbacks led the AFC in passer rating to a wide receiver when targeting Sammy Watkins.  Here's another stat:  The final nine games of the season, which Watkins played healthy in all of them, he was on pace for 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns.  A first round talent that is falling in drafts because of his foot injury suffered in OTA's (April).  Reports of late have been very good as far as Watkins recovery and when we were once wondering about his availability for week one we are now under the impression he may return to the field during training camp.


This is an optimistic article about the potential value of grabbing Sammy Watkins at his current ADP in the late third round (WR20), but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the 'Jones Fracture surgery he underwent in April.  It is a surgery we saw with Julio Jones a few years back and most recently with Julian Edelman and Dez Bryant.  Both players we saw suffer this injury last year came back during the season with about a nine-week recovery time.  Whether they played up to their potential is up for debate and both received a clean-up surgery on the same foot in the offseason.

The difference in the Watkins scenario is his recovery time isn't putting him back on the field in the heat of a regular season battle.  Easing his workload in training camp and the pre-season puts my concern at ease when drafting Sammy.

As for the on-field production and projection for Watkins:

Season	G	Yds/Rec	Catch %	Tar	Rec	Yds	TD	FPTS
2015	12	17.5	65%	93	60	1,047	9	218.8
week 9-17	9	18.4	63%	78	49	900	7	*
16 gm pace	16	18.4	63%	138	87	1,600	12	319
2016 projection	16	17.9	64%	131	84	1,507	12	306.7
	14	17.9	64%	115	74	1,315	10	265.5

• I have projected Watkins for  a 14 and 16 game season to work in the injury stuff.  Either way I feel he will score at a 19.2 pts/game which compared to last season puts him 6th overall at the wide receiver position.
• Tyrod Taylor proved to be a far better passer than expected and in year two working together it's safe to assume better chemistry.  Last year, in his first year, Taylor threw with a 63% completion rate and had only six total interceptions (three of which came in one game).  As a comparison, Tom Brady had a 64% completion rate.

If you're sitting in the 3rd round and Sammy Watkins pops up in your queue, do yourself a favor and take him.