Cam Newton can't be #1 says history

Everyone has that decision between 2 players at a position and there doesn't seem to be a way to decide between them.  Have you ever flipped a coin between your #1 and #2 ranked player?  Maybe even dug down deep in the bag of magical tricks and uttered this famous line, "If I make this shot I am taking this guy and if I miss I am taking that guy."  I am guilty of all of the above and I may have even found myself not really wanting to make the shot I was taking.  As surefire as these methods may be I decided to find something on paper that leads me in the right direction in deciding which QB I want to rank at #1 this season.  The results are nearly undisputed and unfortunately for Cam Newton there is basically zero chance he finishes as the #1 guy in 2016.  Yes Cam, you heard me.


I am going to get right to the point.  There are 3 pieces of evidence that overwhelmingly show how difficult it is to repeat the numbers of a top scoring fantasy QB.  The purpose here is not to tell you who to draft at QB, but rather if you have Cam ranked as your #1 guy that it may be wiser to switch him with your #2 ranked guy whoever that may be.
Note: The fantasy numbers I will be displaying are fairly basic with 6 points for a passing TD and 1 point for every 25 yards passing.

FIRST

Dating back to the year 2000 I have found 15 cases of a QB having an outlier type season.  A fantasy scoring season where the QB scored around 40 or more points than any other year in his career.  I was curious what the immediate following season looked like.  Cam Newton scored 467.1 points last year and that is about 60 more points than he had scored in his career.  This chart should show that:

Player	Year	Highest Scoring Season	Year Following Highest Season	Differential
Tom Brady	2007	498	3	-495
Drew Brees	2011	481.6	433.6	-48
Aaron Rodgers	2011	487.4	427.7	-59.7
Matthew Stafford	2011	423.3	321.3	-102
Andy Dalton	2013	360.1	256.8	-103.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2014	374.8	254.2	-120.6
Andrew Luck	2014	442.7	160.8	-281.9
Peyton Manning	2013	532	390.7	-141.3
Matt Schaub	2009	340.5	297.6	-42.9
Kurt Warner	2001	371.2	56.5	-314.7
Jeff Garcia	2000	402.6	365.8	-36.8
Donovan McNabb	2004	365.1	189.8	-175.3
Jake Plummer	2004	313.1	256.2	-56.9
Daunte Culpepper	2004	453.3	94.7	-358.6
Jake Delhomme	2004	312.5	257.9	-54.6

In these cases the QB's scored on average 159.44 less points than they did in their highest scoring season.  There isn't one case where a QB out played this outlier type season.  Strike one for Cam.

SECOND  

Since the year 2000 there has been no QB to repeat as the #1 fantasy scorer at that position.  Zero.  Zilch.  Nada.  Strike two for Cam.

THIRD

Looking back again through the year 2000 I found 17 cases of a QB scoring 400+ fantasy points in a season and I wanted to see what that next season produced for them:

Player	Year	400+ Point Season	Year Following 400 Pt. Season	Differential
Aaron Rodgers	2009	403.8	362.5	41.3
Aaron Rodgers	2011	487.4	427.7	59.7
Aaron Rodgers	2012	427.7	203.4	224.3
Aaron Rodgers	2014	432.1	363.2	68.9
Cam Newton	2011	408.6	366.9	41.7
Tom Brady	2007	498	3	495
Tom Brady	2011	448.5	408.3	40.2
Tom Brady	2012	408.3	303.5	104.8
Daunte Culpepper	2000	412.5	233.4	179.1
Daunte Culpepper	2004	453.3	94.7	358.6
Jeff Garcia	2000	402.6	365.8	36.8
Drew Brees	2011	481.6	433.6	48
Drew Brees	2012	433.6	439.9	6.3
Matthew Stafford	2011	423.3	321.3	102
Andrew Luck	2014	442.7	160.8	281.9
Peyton Manning	2004	460.1	302.4	157.7
Peyton Manning	2013	532	390.7	141.3

The only case of a player scoring more points the next season was Drew Brees in 2012.  That means 16 of the 17 cases called for a regression by the QB.  On average they scored 148.83 less points the following season.  Strike three for Cam.

In case you put any stake in this piece you might want to know that in 2015 Cam Newton, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson each scored 400+ fantasy points.  I can't help but assume they will not repeat their production in 2016 based solely on the fact that history tells me so.