Do you remember the kid in school that you didn't pay attention to until he was sitting next to you in chemistry and had all the answers? It was then and only then that you considered him your best friend. This isn't very different from the tight end position in fantasy football. Completely overlooked because you think you can get by without him, but before you know it your hands are sweating and you've committed to answering only letter B the rest of the test thinking you're somehow outsmarting the process. No need to my friends, I've got the answer to finding a TE that will let you look at his test.
First off, there's always one tight end who is the good looking smart kid that breezes through school with all the girlfriends and his parents are rich. That's the guy we all draft first and typically that works out. The previous four years Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have been the first TE drafted in round one or two and have finished top-5 all four years. Top-2 in three of the four years. Fine, if you're the lucky one to befriend this stallion then enjoy it. I am more interested in how to go about finding the rest of these guys that can keep me competitive at the position. What I have found is pretty interesting and it's something I am going to commit to this year. In a nutshell, if you draft a TE between rounds one and seven you don't have much of a chance in having a top-7 performer. If you draft a tight end in round eight and beyond then you have increased your chances of getting this top-7 guy significantly. I'll lay it out for you.... I'm letting you look at my test right now so stop shading in the same bubble letter with your number-2 pencil and follow me (ADP from fantasy football calculator):
2015 Top 7 TE's:
Player
|
ADP
|
|
1
|
Rob Gronkowski |
1.10
|
2
|
Jordan Reed |
14.02
|
3
|
Delanie Walker |
undrafted
|
4
|
Gary Barnidge |
undrafted
|
5
|
Greg Olsen |
4.09
|
6
|
Tyler Eifert |
8.12
|
7
|
Benjamin Watson |
undrafted
|
- 5 of the top 7 TE's were drafted in the 8th round or later
2014 Top 7 TE's:
Player
|
ADP
|
|
1
|
Jimmy Graham |
3.06
|
2
|
Rob Gronkowski |
1.08
|
3
|
Antonio Gates |
13.10
|
4
|
Greg Olsen |
8.04
|
5
|
Martellus Bennett |
10.09
|
6
|
Travis Kelce |
13.02
|
7
|
Coby Fleener |
undrafted
|
- 5 of the top 7 TE's were drafted in the 8th round or later
2013 Top 7 TE's:
Player
|
ADP
|
|
1
|
Jimmy Graham |
2.02
|
2
|
Julius Thomas |
undrafted
|
3
|
Tony Gonzalez |
5.08
|
4
|
Jordan Cameron |
11.04
|
5
|
Vernon Davis |
4.09
|
6
|
Jason Witten |
4.09
|
7
|
Greg Olsen |
8.11
|
- 3 of the top 7 TE's were drafted in the 8th round or later
2012 Top 7 TE's:
Player
|
ADP
|
|
1
|
Jimmy Graham |
undrafted
|
2
|
Tony Gonzalez |
8.04
|
3
|
Jason Witten |
7.03
|
4
|
Heath Miller |
undrafted
|
5
|
Rob Gronkowski |
2.05
|
6
|
Brandon Myers |
undrafted
|
7
|
Greg Olsen |
9.06
|
- 5 of the top 7 TE's were drafted in the 8th round or later
In these past four seasons 75% of the time you are getting your best scoring tight ends outside of the 8th round. Call it a minor miracle if you want, but there is enough here for me to be completely comfortable waiting for my tight end. While I have you here... let's give a shout out to Greg Olsen who has made this list each of the four years. An absolute stud at the position, BUT a guy I have zero interest in. What this list tells me about Olsen is that his ceiling is the #4 scoring TE and with his 4th round ADP he is clearly someone who will not let you look at his test. In fact he may even ask the teacher to change seats.
As of right now these are the TE's being drafted in the first 7 rounds who I suggest you avoid:
- Rob Gronkowski (2.03)
- Jordan Reed (4.03)
- Greg Olsen (4.12)
- Delanie Walker (6.03)
- Coby Fleener(6.06)
- Travis Kelce (6.11)
- Tyler Eifert (7.11)
A few tight ends I recommend:
- Zach Miller un-drafted
- Zach Ertz (9.07)
- Dwayne Allen (11.12)
- Gary Barnidge (8.05)
- Antonio Gates (10.01)
We live in a fantasy football world being taken over by analytics and I have to admit that I like a good statistical evaluation as much as the next guy, but there are moments it goes beyond all that. Patterns start to show themselves in this fake football world we all call home and sometimes, just sometimes, that's enough.