Episode 16: Week 2 Match-ups and info

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Round 1 Draft Strategy: Picks 1-6

Round 1of fantasy drafts is a fickle beast at times although one would think making your very first pick should be the easier part of the process.  What I decided to do is make a chart showing how I would go about that pick from every spot. There are some scenarios that I will describe to maybe help understand one humble guy's way of dealing with this first round.  These charts show who I value the most and the order in which I would draft the player depending on who is still available (PPR drafts).


The way to view these charts is simple.  When one of these players is drafted you just cross them off and choose the next available guy.  These are all in order of preference for ME.  If at anytime you feel you would rather a RB or WR or TE then just go to the next available guy at that position.  I set it up this way because I do get asked who I would take if I had the 8th pick this year... well I will lay it all out here with some reasons behind it:


Rd 1: Pick 1
1
Antonio Brown
2
David Johnson


Rd 1: Pick 2
1
Antonio Brown
2
Odell Beckham Jr.
3
David Johnson
4
Lamar Miller

  • The first couple picks are quite simple.  I am taking Antonio Brown.  If I have the 2nd pick and he is gone well then just give me Odell Beckham and I'll have close to the same smile on my face.  If you prefer a RB to start your draft then as you can see I prefer David Johnson this year.  With the news of Le'Veon's looming 4 game suspension Lamar Miller has moved up to the #2 running back I prefer.  If you want a RB early in the draft and DJ is gone then I can't let Miller slip past me.


Rd 1: Pick 3
1
Antonio Brown
2
Odell Beckham Jr.
3
Julio Jones
4
David Johnson
5
Lamar Miller
6
Todd Gurley

  • At pick 3 I am taking whichever wide receiver is still available to me.  Odd's are it will be Beckham or Julio.  The choice at RB in the three spot is easy for my personal projections.  I am completely confident in the workload Lamar Miller will see and I can't doubt Todd Gurley's ability, but his pass catching role is not clear and as far as PPR goes I can't be certain he will catch more than 30 passes.  If he starts to get the volume like some of the past top scorers we've seen then Gurley can very well be the top scoring PPR back.


Rd 1: Pick 4
1
Antonio Brown
2
Odell Beckham Jr.
3
Julio Jones
4
David Johnson
5
AJ Green
6
Lamar Miller
7
Todd Gurley
8
Jamaal Charles
  • Pick 4 we start to see some confusion set in.  The more mock drafts you do the more you understand how things can change drastically depending on what is taken before you.  My ideal pick is obviously one of those wide receivers slipping to me, but if not then my choice here is David Johnson.  There are eight guys on this list because I want to give people options I would be okay with at this point depending on all the different scenarios that could take place in the first three picks.

Rd 1: Pick 5
1
Antonio Brown
2
Odell Beckham Jr.
3
Julio Jones
4
David Johnson
5
AJ Green
6
Jordy Nelson
7
Lamar Miller
8
Todd Gurley
9
Jamaal Charles
10
Ezekiel Elliot
11
Rob Gronkowski
  • I hope by now you are following my concept here with the chart.  It is pick 5 so you should have crossed off 4 names by now and the players remaining are your choice to pick.  I just have them ranked in order that I would draft them.  Rob Gronkowski makes his first showing.  If you are a believer in the Gronk and want to pass on some of the guys I have ahead of him then I think pick 5 is okay to start that thought process.

Rd 1: Pick 6
1
Antonio Brown
2
Odell Beckham Jr.
3
Julio Jones
4
David Johnson
5
AJ Green
6
Jordy Nelson
7
Dez Bryant
8
Lamar Miller
9
Jamaal Charles
10
Todd Gurley
11
Ezekiel Elliot
12
Rob Gronkowski
  • If it came down to it and I am picking 6th and the first five guys took wide receivers I would be left with a decision to take a RB (which my choice is David Johnson) or the next wideout on my list which is Dez Bryant.  I make this chart for myself because it's easier for me to deal with these choices when they come up.  I just move down the list and take David Johnson.
    
  

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